Win probabilities come from our market-based NFL model. The field column is a projection of how many entrants pick each team, anchored to SurvivorGrid's national consensus. EV runs 10,000 simulations of the full slate in your browser: in each one, we play out every game, see which entrants survive, and split the pot among survivors. Your EV for a pick is your average share of the pot across all simulations, shown as a multiple of an even split — anything over 1.00× means the pick earns more than your fair share of the pot. Picking a slightly worse team that far fewer people are on is often the higher-EV play, and that's exactly what this surfaces. If everyone left is eliminated in the same week, the simulation splits the pot among all of them, the most common pool rule.

Field percentages are national consensus, so if your pool skews different (homers, one office, sharp friends), lean on the win and field columns and your own judgment. This is a tool, not a promise.